Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks VS Chicago White Sox 2025-06-25
The Setup
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-137) are favored to continue their dominance over the Chicago White Sox (+220) in a matchup that’s less of a contest and more of a "watch the underdog try to not get embarrassed" special. The D-Backs have won 19 of 27 all-time meetings, including 11 of 13 in Chicago, where the White Sox are currently on a six-game home losing streak. The White Sox, meanwhile, are the MLB’s worst team (25-54), with a putrid .220 team batting average and a pitching staff that’s been outscored by 100+ runs this season.
Key Stats & Trends
- Arizona’s Offense: 5.2 runs/game, 113 HRs (3rd in MLB). Ketel Marte (.310 BA) and Geraldo Perdomo (.285 BA with 15 HRs) are electric.
- Chicago’s Offense: Last in MLB in batting average (.220), 28th in runs (2.9/game). Luis Robert Jr. (.240 BA) is their only semi-competent hitter.
- Starting Pitchers:
- Zac Gallen (AZ): 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 11.2 K/9. Gallen has held opponents to a .210 BA this season.
- Sean Burke (CHI): 4.85 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 6.1 K/9. Burke has allowed 5+ runs in 4 of his last 5 starts.
Injuries & Notes
- Arizona’s lineup is mostly healthy, with Eugenio Suarez (19 HRs) and Josh Naylor (17 HRs) providing thunder.
- Chicago’s rotation is a dumpster fire. Burke is the only viable starter, and even he’s been shaky. The White Sox have no reliable bullpen, with a 5.12 ERA in relief.
Odds Breakdown
- Moneyline: Arizona -137 (implied probability: 57.7%), Chicago +220 (implied: 31.0%).
- Spreads: Arizona -1.5 (-110), Chicago +1.5 (-110).
- Totals: Over 9.0 (1.98), Under 9.0 (1.83).
Calculating Expected Value
1. Arizona’s Implied Win Probability: 57.7% (from -137).
2. Historical Context: D-Backs win 64.3% of games as -137 or shorter favorites.
3. Chicago’s Implied Win Probability: 31.0% (from +220).
4. Underdog Win Rate in MLB: 41%.
Splitting the Difference
- Adjust Arizona’s probability to 60% (midpoint between 57.7% and 64.3%).
- Adjust Chicago’s probability to 36% (midpoint between 31.0% and 41%).
EV Calculations
- Arizona: (60% * 100) - (40% * 137) = +15.2.
- Chicago: (36% * 220) - (64% * 100) = +8.0.
Best Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks (-137)
Why? The D-Backs are a well-rounded team with a strong offense, a decent starter, and a historically reliable track record as favorites. The White Sox are a trainwreck with no answer for Arizona’s bats. Even with the -137 line, Arizona’s adjusted EV (+15.2) crushes Chicago’s (+8.0).
Bonus Pick: Over 9.0 Runs
Arizona’s offense (5.2 R/G) and Chicago’s porous pitching (5.7 R/G allowed) suggest a high-scoring game. The Over 9.0 (-105) is a smart play, given the context.
Final Verdict
Bet the D-Backs. It’s not even close. The White Sox are the baseball version of a "take your lumps and hope for a miracle" team. Enjoy the show—and the profit. 🎩⚾
#MLB #DBacks
